Horse racing and
sports betting.
 
 

Punt to Win

Pro-Punter
Horse racing forums
Swap tips and discuss betting systems and software

Qld, NT and Tasmanian punters, claim up to $502 deposit match!


Qld, NT and Tasmanian punters, claim up to a $250 bonus bet!


Join Betfair now!
Win at racing

 

 

6/8/2004 edition

Trifecta Standout Betting Tips

Can you add value to that short priced "certainty" by taking it as a standout to win in a trifecta? Here's an interesting article about that topic:

"With Sunline a raging favourite punters were advised by some media tipsters on the Saturday morning of the race to obtain value by taking Sunline as a standout for first in the trifecta.

You cannot miraculously inject value into a horse that pays $1.20 on the tote for your dollar outlay when it wins. The tote is not going to run at a loss on the race. That's the only way value will be created by taking Sunline as a standout to win in your trifecta when 95% of your fellow tote punters have done exactly the same thing.

The best collect for the Sunline trifecta was just $35.70 on Super Tab. Very poor odds considering there were 12 horses in the field and the horse that ran third, Citra's Prince was a bolter and paid up to $5.10 on the tote for the place. The chances were that you had to outlay more than you won and you had to rely on a long shot finishing third to collect a dividend of $35.70.

Put simply, trying to inject value into a $1.20 winner on the tote is like having a drink from an empty glass. It cannot be done.

To win on the tote you must play the game differently from the majority of tote punters otherwise you are guaranteed to get way under the true odds when you collect which means you must lose long term. Just about every tote punter used Sunline as a standout in a trifecta. That means you will get way under the true odds because the tote is not going to lose if the punters are right. It just reduces the payout to the punters. The more popular the win is with punters the poorer the tote value for punters.

Paradoxically there was a way to get value from Sunline.
A successful punting acquaintance always looks very carefully at trifecta opportunities when just about everyone sees a horse as an absolute standout. So he took a 3x6xfield trifecta. He did not take Sunline to win. He reasoned that because just about every punter was taking Sunline as a standout to win in the mistaken belief that they could create value, if by any chance she lost that would wipe out most trifecta combinations. As a result the payout would be way over the true odds. He lost his money this time but he doesn't care because he is well in front over the long term."
First published in Punt to Win , September 22, 2000.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form lines are irrelevant
Get those betting odds
Getting value betting odds on favourites in trifectas
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 23/7/2004
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Grumans 15.40 36.80 $2140
Touchy Subject 22.50 35.80 $1430
Rupanyup 12.30 22.80 $1050
Proudly Aggro 29.40 38.90 $950
Silver Canon 30.90 39.90 $900
Sure Bet 15.50 23.90 $840
Starbucks 11.80 20.10 $830


Best online bookmakers
Best online poker rooms

Copyright 1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved.

 

Home | Contact us | Special offers | Horse racing forum | Advertise here

 
  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.