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7/3/2003 edition

Australian Cup Betting Odds

I saw a prepost betting odds market for the Australian Cup today in the Herald Sun. The market was attributed to leading bookmaker Michael Eskander.

The prices, with my added market percentages were:
$1.50 (66.67%) Northerly
$2.50 (40%) Fields Of Omagh
$13.00 (7.69%) Distinctly Secret
$15.00 (6.67%) Natural Blitz
$21.00 (4.76%) Don Eduardo, Lashed, Pentastic
$34.00 (2.94%) Grey Song, Tully Thunder

What immediately caught my attention was that Northerly and Fields Of Omagh alone made a market of over 106%! Those are the sort of odds you get in a head to head sports betting contest, (even closer to 100%) without there being other teams also in the contest that had a rough chance of spoiling the result.

Over 100% between just two horses alone. Are we meant to take those odds seriously? In total, those nine horses make a market of over 141%. We suggest you do not bet into it. You are not getting value. Even more so as being a week before the race, the market is all in. That means if your horse doesn't run for any reason then you lose your bet.


Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor tote odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


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