Punt to Win
Gai Waterhouse Favourites
Short priced, heavily backed Gai Waterhouse trained horses regularly turn out to be poor betting propositions. Be absolutely sure before you back them.
Also, unlike John Hawkes, who has a good record at successfully switching states with his runners, Gai Waterhouse continues to have an poor record with Sydney trained horses that she brings to Melbourne.
Last Saturday she brought classy 4YO mare Brecon Rose, to Melbourne for the Group 3 Mannerism Stakes. In seven starts in Sydney the mare had six wins and a second.
The mare was solidly backed at Caulfield racetrack from $6.50 to $4.60. In the field of 13 Brecon Rose finished thirteenth, over 13 lengths from the winner.
The mare got tightened at the 1200, then shifted out across the heels of Galapagos Girl. Brecon Rose also got its head up and overraced in the middle stages of the race. A vet inspection after the race revealed that Brecon Rose had also been galloped on.
In Sydney the horses race in a clockwise direction, compared to Melbourne which is anticlockwise. There are plenty of Gai Waterhouse's horses that do not appear to be fully comfortable with the Melbourne way of going and so do not race truly. When that occurs it also can increase the horse's chances of getting injured in a race.
Some form analysts even ignore horses' bad luck in races, claiming that most horses bring it on themselves.
This edition of Punt to Win:
It is just about
impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short
priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on
Short priced tote
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