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Punt to Win |
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28/2/2003 edition How Not to Play Trifectas In the Herald Sun, Saturday, February 22, 2003, Shane Templeton in his column "Midnight Oil", gave a "Value Bet" for the five horse St. George Stakes at Caulfield. Here it is: "VALUE BET: Trifecta 1,3/1,3/4,5" In what was popularly considered a two horse match race, Shane Templeton's bet was to take those two very short priced tote horses, Northerly and Fields Of Omagh both to win. You also take the short priced horse that doesn't win to run second and then throw in two of the other three runners for third. The bet would cost $4.00. You'd be battling to get your $4.00 back if you won. That being the case how can it be a "Value Bet"? As it turned out, one of the three roughies was scratched. The race was won by Northerly and the four horse trifecta was 1, 3, 5. It paid $2.90. So even if you went 1/3/4,5 for your $2.00 outlay you got back $2.90 which was a smaller return, with greater risk, than backing Northerly straight out for the win. That lower trifecta return reflects the higher tote take out for trifectas compared to win bets. This edition of Punt to Win: You Need Top Odds It
is just about impossible to get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and the poor value tote horses to make up for
the big unders on the tote. Short
priced tote favourites Specials |
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