7/6/2002 edition

Eagle Farm
Longshots Clean Up

Last Saturday's big Queensland Oaks Day meeting at Eagle Farm looked like a tough betting day and so it turned out. Four of the eight races were won by:

Teldawn $31.00 (tote $42.70)
Maltese Beauty $26.00 (tote $44.80)
Lord Denning $21.00 (tote $26.80)
Mon Meki $51.00 (tote $87.20)

What can be learned from the wash up?

1. Donnadane $2.25 favourite (as short as $1.70 on the New South Wales tote at jump), finished second to Teldawn in the opening race of the day. A very bad start for many punters. The popular Damigos ran third in this field of 10. The trifecta paid as low as $237. A payout way under the odds.

Clearly taking Teldawn to win with two short priced horses to run second and third was poor value.

2. Donnadane was trained by John Hawkes. Later in the day short priced $2.80 favourite Freemason, also trained by John Hawkes, also ran second. But Lord Denning, one of the winning bolters on the day was also trained by John Hawkes. Favourites backers will not be too pleased about that.

Some years ago a punter I knew said, "John Hawkes' horses are a menace to punters." He was using a quinella betting system which was based upon selective horses firming in the betting being used as bankers for quinellas and other horses firming being taken in the quinella with that horse. (A quinella is selecting the first two finishers in a race in any order.)

He regularly was wiped out when Hawkes' trained horses that firmed significantly in the betting missed out for him and was particularly irritated when other Hawkes' trained horses which eased in the betting ran first or second at long odds, wiping out his quinellas.
Next page

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting tips after longshots win at Eagle Farm
Betting - wise words from "Uncle Freddy"
Betting myths
Betting fluctuations explained
Money talks - Rosehill and Sandown plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 31/5/2002
Punt to Win index

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