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8/10/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from last Saturday, October 2.

Randwick: Track Slow
R3 $200,000 3YO and upward. Group 3. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Ain't Seen Nothin'
Result: third
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.60
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Barbara Joseph
Winner: Fiery Venture
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Doomben: Track Good
R1 $25,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1615 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: What A Guy
Result: first
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Paul Hammersly
Trainer: Bryan Guy

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting tips for Spring horse racing
Get those betting odds
Betting tips for 2YO races
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick, Flemington betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 1/10/2004
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.