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8/10/2004 edition

2YO Races Betting Tips

Last Saturday at Flemington unraced 2YO colt Danerich was expected to be a "good thing" and started at the prohibitive odds of $1.60. Danerich was running against a field of seven other first starters. Danerich, who cost $500,000 at the Magic Millions Premier Sale, won a Cranbourne trial over 770 metres on a Slow rated track by 4.5 lengths on September 17. Rossa Glory finished second in that trial.

But at Flemington last Saturday, on a Good rated track, Rossa Glory won and paid $10.60. Danerich was given every chance in that 900 metres race, but weakened badly over the last couple of hundred metres and finished fifth, beaten by five lengths. Alas, Danerich did not know that he cost $500,000 and was expected to perform on the racetrack.

Here is what we wrote about 2YO races in Punt to Win in October 2002. It is just as valid today.

"We are now at the time of the year where the 2YOs start racing. There were two 1000 metres 2YO Listed races at Randwick last Saturday - 12 fillies in one race and 13 colts and geldings in the other race . The only form available was trial form - a very unreliable guide. Not one of these horses had started in a real race.

Last Saturday at Randwick in the fillies' race Secret Land, trained by Gai Waterhouse, was backed from $2.50 to $2.00. How can you take $2.00 about a horse when you don't even know the quality of the other runners? Secret Land finished seventh. Was Secret Land a tip from the trainer, Gai Waterhouse, to the connections? The winner Spurcent paid $42.20 on the New South Wales tote.

In the colts and geldings' race Billy Whiz started $3.10 favourite on the strength of a barrier trial win by over five lengths. He certainly didn't live up to his name. He finished 10th. of 13.

There was also some money for the John Hawkes' trained Berber who firmed from $5.50 to $4.60. Punters put their money on the wrong Hawkes' trained horse. They didn't support Ribald, who won and paid $20.90 on the New South Wales tote.

When betting in these 2YO races:

The first rule, despite what everyone tells you, is that following the betting ring money is absolutely useless. Substantial bets on unraced horses, when you do not know the true race form for the other runners is nothing more than "wealthy mug money".

If you must bet in these races place very small win bets on horses around $20+ who have top trainers or jockeys or good trial form. They are probably just as likely to win than the "wealthy mug money" supported horses.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting tips for Spring horse racing
Get those betting odds
Betting tips for 2YO races
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick, Flemington betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 1/10/2004
Punt to Win index

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