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9/4/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, April 3.

Rosehill: Track Good
R6 $400,000 Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Lonhro
Result: first
Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctation: $1.60
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30

Morphettville: Track Good
R3 $40,000 2YO Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Bouzy
Result: third
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctation: $2.80
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Tony McEvoy
Winner: Prancelot
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Warren Hughes
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

This edition of Punt to Win:
Craig Newitt suspension
Get those betting odds!
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Sandown betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 2/4/2004
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

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