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9/4/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, April 2.

Moonee Valley: Track Good

R1 $50,000 Hurdle.
Handicap.
Distance: 3200 metres
Number of runners: five
Equal Favourite: Liquid Lunch
Result: second
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.30
Jockey: Brad McLean
Trainer: Chris Hyland
Equal Favourite: Alexander's Magic
Result: second
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
Jockey: Craig Durden
Trainer: Mark Young
Winner: Tezza Raami
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Paul Hamblin
Trainer: John Rattle

R3 $100,000 2YO Listed. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Leveller
Result: third
Starting price: $2.05
Top fluctuation: $2.10
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson
Winner: Pinezero
Starting price: $15.00
Top fluctuation: $15.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $16.30
Jockey: Greg Childs
Trainer: John Moloney


Doomben: Track Good

R2 $25,000 Rs0mw. Handicap.

Distance: 1630 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Aerosol
Result: first

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Stathi Katsidis
Trainer: Paul Laycock

R4 $25,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1020 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Any Suggestion
Result: first
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Stathi Katsidis
Trainer: Les Kelly


Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $20,000 3YO. Class 6. Handicap.

Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Roman's Image
Result: third
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctation: $3.20
Jockey: Justin Potter
Trainer: Mick Whittle
Winner: Kournerov
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Scott Leckey
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

R2 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Dalziel
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctation: $2.70
Jockey: Chris Bryant
Trainer: David Jolly
Winner: Swiss Vault
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.70
Jockey: Nicole Stone
Trainer: Stuart Gower

R4 $26,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Taos Pleasure
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctation: $2.40
Jockey: Ben Hoppo
Trainer: John Hickmott
Winner: King's Arch
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.30
Jockey: Kayla Stra
Trainer: Mick Whittle

This edition of Punt to Win:
Understanding horse racing ratings
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Randwick, Sydney Cup Day
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 2/4/2005
Punt to Win index


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You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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