Punt to Win

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9/6/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 2nd. June.

Morphettville: Track Dead

R3 $20,000 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Idalou
Result: third
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.30
Jockey: Amy Herrmann
Trainer: Trevor Dansie
Winner: Vormista
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.70
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: Mark Minervini

R8 $20,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Rs1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Madam Lush
Result: first

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: Phillip Stokes

Here are the results from Saturday, 26th. May.

Cheltenham: Track Dead

R1 $20,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Soowee
Result: second
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: David Carney
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Bolton Abbey
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.60
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: David Hayes

This edition of Punt to Win:
"This horse can't win because of the barrier"
Get those betting odds
The Improvers horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 2/6/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Sandown Lakeside
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 2/6/2007
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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