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10/9/2004 edition

Betting "Tote Firmers"

There is no surer way of punters guaranteeing themselves to be long term losers than by closely watching the tote fluctuations and then backing the "tote firmers". The tote may be following betting ring fluctuations, but that is not always guaranteed.

Even if the tote was following betting ring fluctuations, if you were at the track and saw a horse plunged in the betting ring from $7.00 to $3.00, would you watch all the betting action then take the $3.00 about it just before it jumped? No smart punter would. That unfortunately is exactly what punters are doing when they follow the tote fluctuations and back huge "firmers" on the tote just before the jump.

The London Banker
was solidly plunged in the last at Randwick on Monday, October 2 from $6.00 to $3.80. It just won in a desperately close finish. The best odds available on the tote was a paltry $3.50. At that price it was no value. But it was value, earlier in the bookmakers' betting ring, when it was many points better than that.

Because punters often get so far under the actual odds available in the bookmakers' betting ring, they must lose long term. Guaranteed. It is just as certain as death and taxes. Punters usually end up getting terrible value. You are not getting a good enough price to recover your outlay on losing wagers.
Based on Punt to Win, 6/12/2000.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses at big odds
Get those betting odds
Betting "tote firmers"
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Warwick Farm, Flemington betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 3/9/2004
Punt to Win index


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Horse

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Grumans 15.40 36.80 $2140
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Rupanyup 12.30 22.80 $1050
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Silver Canon 30.90 39.90 $900
Sure Bet 15.50 23.90 $840
Starbucks 11.80 20.10 $830


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