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11/2/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, February 5.

Rosehill: Track Good

R1 $60,000 3YO. Class 6. Handicap.

Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Cross Bar
Result: first
Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $1.95
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R5 $150,000 2YO. Group 2. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Domesday
Result: first
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes


Flemington: Track Slow

R5 $200,000 3YO Fillies. Group 2.
Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Hollow Bullet
Result: second
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
Jockey: David Taggart
Trainer: John McArdle
Winner: Ballet Society
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Pat Hyland

R7 $60,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Clowns
Result: third
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Highclere
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.70
Jockey: Jason Benbow
Trainer: Peter G Moody

This edition of Punt to Win:
Dobbin's Treasure Chest - racing software betting program
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Rosehill and Flemington
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 4/2/2005
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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