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11/6/2005 edition

Winning Handicapping Tips

Weight is the great leveller in racing. As a horse rises in weight its chances of winning decreases in handicaps. When horses in handicaps are asked to carry around 58kg. or more many are often risky bets.

There is a typical media cliché, "The horse has the class, (form, wins,) so it deserves the weight." The media tipster then selects the horse which then goes on to lose.

Throw in the double whammy of a significant weight rise and a poor barrier compared to the last start and you are often looking at a very risky betting proposition. These horses regularly lose. Just check the results out for yourself! You'll see what we mean.

There is a very common rule used by many computer programmes and form analysts. It assumes that 1.5kg equals one length.

Increase a horse's handicap weight by 1.5kg over the Limit weight (minimum handicapped weight for that race) and it will perform one length worse, all other factors being equal.

Decrease a horse's handicap weight by 1.5kg and it will perform one length better, all other factors being equal.

That rule is not accurate.
    
Without going into all the complexities, the following guidelines are far more important. If followed you will back many more winners and avoid backing many losers.

1) The more weight a horse has to carry, the more significant a small weight rise is. 

2) The less weight a horse has to carry, the less significant a large weight rise is.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Weight handicapping tips
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Sandown Hillside
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 4/6/2005
Punt to Win index


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