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12/4/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 5th. April.

Canterbury: Track Good
Queen of the Turf Stakes Day

R1 $300,000 2YO Colts & Geldings. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Equal Favourite: Mazuka
Result: sixth
Starting price: $3.30
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Equal Favourite: Reaan
Result: seventh
Starting price: $3.30
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Krupt
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.40
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Matthew Smith

R2 $140,000 3YO and upward. Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1550 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Racing To Win
Result: second
Starting price: $1.60
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: John O'Shea
Winner: Mentality
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.10
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes

Cheltenham: Track Good

R2 $27,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Court Bell
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Troy Baker
Trainer: Paula Trenwith
Winner: Private Liaison
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.10
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

This edition of Punt to Win:
Victorian horse racing bookmakers - betting plunges
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Lucky Seven Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/4/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/3/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 5/4/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 29/3/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 29/3/2008
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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