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12/9/2003 edition

Longshot Betting Tips

Every day horses win at big double figure odds. Most of those winners are still poor value - for example a winner at $20.00 should really be $30.00, a winner at $30.00 should really be $45.00 and so on.

But there are also opportunities to find winners and placegetters that are real value and should be at much shorter odds. These horses can also add massive value to your trifecta and first four betting.

An example is Sundiva which won a 3YO Fillies Open Handicap over 1555 metres at Morphettville on 30 August this year.

The normally very tight Adelaide bookies opened Sundiva at $26.00 and firmed the filly to $21.00, still outstanding value. Why was Sundiva such excellent value?

Sundiva had only raced twice - on 30 July and 16 August. On 16 August she raced in a 3YO Open at Morphettville over 1200 metres and finished the race off well. While she finished seventh, she was only two and a half lengths from the winner. The indications were that she was looking for more distance.

That's what she got two weeks later when she stormed home from well back in the field to win at the same track. She was also down slightly in overall class - back to 3YO Fillies instead of 3YO Open company.

There were no worldbeaters in the field of 10 fillies. Though Chickadee stood out on the basis of a 1.9 lengths fourth in a 2YO Fillies Group 3 race over 1200 metres at Flemington in March this year. However Chickadee was second up with a 24 day break after her first up run, beaten 4.9 lengths in a restricted midweek 3YO Fillies race at Sandown Lakeside track over 1400 metres. On that form, combined with a significant break between her first and second runs, she was no certainty to win in Adelaide.

Because Sundiva started at $51.00 at Morphettville at her previous start, her good run was probably dismissed as a fluke. There are many horses that win or put in strong runs at big double figure odds and are then sent out at big odds again in similar company.

It could pay not to dismiss those good runs as flukes like many punters do, particularly if you are dealing with a lightly raced horse.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Longshot betting tips
Betting tips - new trainers, John Hawkes, Gai Waterhouse
Spring Carnival horses - good runs, good betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick betting tips from the track
Money talks - Flemington betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 5/9/2003
Punt to Win index


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Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Grumans 15.40 36.80 $2140
Touchy Subject 22.50 35.80 $1430
Rupanyup 12.30 22.80 $1050
Proudly Aggro 29.40 38.90 $950
Silver Canon 30.90 39.90 $900
Sure Bet 15.50 23.90 $840
Starbucks 11.80 20.10 $830


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