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12/9/2003 edition

Horse Racing Selections

New Trainer, New Horse, Make Money

It pays to be on your guard when a horse resumes after a spell or freshen up and has its first start for a new trainer. Particularly if the horse has performed well in the past and then had an indifferent campaign.

2002 Magic Millions winner Lovely Jubly had gone six races without a win. She was then sent to a new trainer, Brian Mayfield-Smith, who has a high winning strike rate compared to most trainers.

Lovely Jubly resumed at Caulfield on 30 August and easily won.

There are plenty of other examples, too. Sometimes these horses will also win at big odds with a very unexpected form reversal.

Don't say you haven't been warned.


John Hawkes and first up winners

John Hawkes got yet another first up winner at big odds when Adolescence, resuming from a spell of four months, won a Listed 1400 metres handicap at Flemington last Saturday.

The 6YO gelding paid up to $68.10 on the tote.

Unlike some stables, many of John Hawkes' trained horses fire first up from a spell. Like anything in racing you cannot go out and automatically back every Hawkes' trained horse resuming from a spell. But if you are selective you have a chance.

Adolescence had won twice at Flemington, had won first up, and over the 1400 metres at Flemington had one win from three starts.


Gai Waterhouse - disappointing losing bets

Did you notice how horrible things happened to some well backed Gai Waterhouse trained horses last Saturday? It wasn't just a case of simply finding one better on the day for the following well supported horses last Saturday at Randwick:

a). Terracotta Bay $3.70 never got out in the straight until too late. It was an absolute certainty beaten.

b). Shower Of Roses, first up, was backed into $3.80 in a Group 3 Handicap over 1400 metres. She failed to respond to jockey Chris Munce's riding and the 4YO mare finished last of the seven runners. The Waterhouse Stable could offer no explanation for the poor run. After the race the mare had a poor recovery rate and as a precaution a routine swab sample was taken.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Longshot betting tips
Betting tips - new trainers, John Hawkes, Gai Waterhouse
Spring Carnival horses - good runs, good betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick betting tips from the track
Money talks - Flemington betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 5/9/2003
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Grumans 15.40 36.80 $2140
Touchy Subject 22.50 35.80 $1430
Rupanyup 12.30 22.80 $1050
Proudly Aggro 29.40 38.90 $950
Silver Canon 30.90 39.90 $900
Sure Bet 15.50 23.90 $840
Starbucks 11.80 20.10 $830


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