12/11/2005 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

What a dud tip - odds are important

The following story will illustrate the importance of getting decent odds for your bets. It also illustrates how it is important to be aware of factors that can make your bet far from the "certainty" that everyone says it is.

A few years ago The Expat was a huge media tip for the Oaks Day meeting at Flemington. We heard one "expert" call it his "bet of the day".

Taking short odds about horses like The Expat guarantees you must lose over the long term. Consider these points:

1. Weight rise from 52kg. to 58kg. The most weight he had carried in his career of nine starts was 55.5kg.

2. Terrible barrier. He went from nine at his previous start to 15 at the Flemington 1400 metres start.

3. Terrible price. He was $2.00 favourite in the big 16 horse field.

The Expat worked early to get the lead, weakened when the pressure was applied in the straight and finished sixth, beaten by over five lengths.

Our suggestion is if you want to back a horse which rises significantly in weight only do so if you get good odds about the animal. Ignore those badly weighted, short priced horses with poor barriers being touted for free by the racing media.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis and betting tips
Get those betting odds
The Money Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track: Flemington
Betting tips from the track: Randwick
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 5/11/2005
Punt to Win index

2005 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds?

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