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12/11/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 5th. November.

Randwick: Track Good

R1 $55,000 2YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Obsessed With Ella
Result: third
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Rod Quinn
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Up'N'Doing
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Kanichiro Fujii
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson

R2 $55,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Rationalize
Result: first

Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Zac Purton
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R3 $55,000 3YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Bentley Biscuit
Result: first

Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $1.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Kanichiro Fujii
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R4 $55,000 3YO. Class 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Strada
Result: second
Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.60
Jockey: Zac Purton
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Million Lad
Starting price: $31.00
Top fluctuation: $31.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $28.90
Jockey: Jeff Penza
Trainer: Anthony Cummings


Cheltenham: Track Good

R1 $20,000 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Davout
Result: second
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Strikes Back
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Scott Leckey
Trainer: Ricky Moore

R2 $20,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Tulum
Result: second
Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $2.00
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Petrella
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.20
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: David Jolly

R3 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1460 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Signor Bruno
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Trainer: Sue Jaensch
Winner: Fight Sars
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.00
Jockey: Scott Leckey
Trainer: David Hayes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis and betting tips
Get those betting odds
The Money Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track: Flemington
Betting tips from the track: Randwick
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 5/11/2005
Punt to Win index


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You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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