12/12/2003 edition

Staking Losses Into Profits

A forum post on December 2 went along the lines of:

"From 60 races I got 16 winners for a 27% strike rate. The average price was $3.36. The total return was 53.7 units. At level stakes this was a loss of 6.3 units, that is 10.5% on turnover. How do I get back at least $60 over the 60 races using a staking plan which recovers past losses as well."

Regular forum contributor osulldj posted a reply:

"Ask a silly question and you are likely to get a whole heap of silly answers. You are asking for "magic" to make an ordinary performing set of selections produce a remarkable profit. Take it from me...there is no way anyone can present a plan to you that will turn such a performance around in the manner you are requesting.

Sure, you can make up something that might work miracles on that batch of selections you are talking about, but it will only be because of the particular order of those winners and losers, and the dividends of each at that point in the sequence. Any plan like that is unlikely to hold up over the next 60 selections and I can just about guarantee it won't hold up in the 60 after that, or the 60 after that etc.

Okay, now that I have said my bit on that, I will try and offer some advice that can help you.

1. I don't know what your dividends are based on, but if it is only TAB or SP (starting price) then work harder to get a better price. Explore all options for each bet including Betfair, bookies and best of the three totes. If I calculate my profit on turnover from my own betting against what it would be each year based on only TAB or SP, the difference is about 10% POT. This is thousands of extra dollars a year.

2. The best way to bet is to have more on the horses you think have a better chance of winning and more on those where you have a greater advantage over the market. Assuming you know why each of these selections should be bet on, try staking based on your confidence about the winning chances.

3. Finally, try and eliminate some losers. Getting rid of 5 or 6 losers from that group will see you just about break even at level stakes.

Review the circumstances behind each bet and try and understand why some horses won and why some lost. Develop some strategies to limit your play and avoid some of the losers you would otherwise bet on in the future. The last two of these strategies require judgement and decision making on your part...but that's what is needed if you really want to make money. A selection and/or betting approach where you don't have to call on your own judgement or decision making is a total waste of time...perhaps not from an entertainment view point and your hobby of punting, but certainly from a money making perspective. The game just doesn't work like that..."

We would argue that for the average punter getting proper odds about the horses they back is probably just as important as the selections. See what we mean:
Continued next page

This edition of Punt to Win:
Staking losses into profits
Jockey watch - Chris Munce
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick, Sandown betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 5/12/2003
Punt to Win index

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