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12/12/2003 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

By the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - fared last Saturday. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Randwick 6/12/2003
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Majestic Fiesta
59kg.
1
1100
$7.00
2/9
Victoria Park 6/12/2003
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Border Time
59.5kg.
10
1400
$9.00
3/11
Zedimbi
59.5kg.
4
1400
$2.60f.
1/11
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Staking losses into profits
Jockey watch - Chris Munce

Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick, Sandown betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 5/12/2003
Punt to Win index


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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor tote odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


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  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.