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12/12/2003
edition
Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about
favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne,
Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
The results should prove quite interesting.
Here are the results from Saturday, December 6.
Randwick: Track Dead
R1 $45,000 2YO Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Conrod Straight
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 1.3 lengths
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctation: $3.10
Tote dividends' range: $3.20 - $3.30
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Kris Lees
R2 $45,000 3YO Fillies. Sc1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Xanex
Result: third
Winning/losing margin: 5.6 lengths
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctation: $4.60
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson
Winner: Belle Feline
Winning/losing margin: 0.8 lengths
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctation: $4.60
Tote dividends' range: $3.90 - $4.20
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Toby Edmonds
R4 $45,000 3YO Colts & Geldings. Sc1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Monte Warrior
Result: third
Winning/losing margin: 0.2 lengths
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctation: $2.50
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Noel Mayfield-Smith
Winner: Dane Fever
Winning/losing margin: nose
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctation: $3.60
Tote dividends' range: $3.30 - $3.40
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: John Hawkes
Sandown Hillside: Track Good
R1 $40,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Debra's Joy
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 2.3 lengths
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctation: $2.50
Tote dividends' range: $2.30 - $2.60
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Lee Freedman
R2 $40,000 3YO Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Bushido
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 4 lengths
Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctation: $1.60
Tote dividends' range: $1.40 - $1.50
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Shannon G Hope
Victoria Park: Track Good
R5 $24,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Noble Win
Result: sixth
Winning/losing margin: 4.4 lengths
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctation: $4.00
Jockey: Todd Pannell
Trainer: David Jolly
Winner: Counter Sue
Winning/losing margin: 1.8 lengths
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctation: $7.00
Tote dividends' range: $5.20 - $6.20
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald
This edition of Punt to Win:
Staking
losses into profits
Jockey watch - Chris Munce
Betting
favourites in small fields
Money
talks - Randwick, Sandown betting tips from the track
Handicapping
tips - weight and class
Future
winners - unlucky horses
Punt
to Win 5/12/2003
Punt to Win
index
Betting
packages
You
Need Top Odds
It
is just about impossible to get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and the poor value tote horses to make up for
the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.
Short
priced tote favourites
are losing bets.
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