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13/2/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, February 7.

Rosehill: Track Good
R2 $50,000 Mares. Sc1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Template
Result: fourth
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctation: $4.00
Jockey: Luke Price
Trainer: Darren Smith
Winner: Empressaire
Starting price: $12.00
Top fluctation: $16.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.00
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Chris Waller

R5 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Jivago
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctation: $4.20
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Gwenda Markwell
Winner: Bosworth
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.00
Jockey: Brad Pengelly
Trainer: Les Bridge

Caulfield: Track Good
R1 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Domine
Result: third
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctation: $2.30
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Physique
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctation: $11.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.50
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Len Treloar

R4 $75,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Brief Embrace
Result: third
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctation: $3.50
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Cross Current
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.50
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton

R6 $100,000 3YO Group 3. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Special Harmony
Result: first
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Lee Freedman

This edition of Punt to Win:
Lonhro is a champion
Do tote betting odds beat bookmaker odds?
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Caulfield betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 6/2/2004
Punt to Win index


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It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

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