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14/1/2012 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 7th. January, 2012.

Warwick Farm: Track Good.

R4 $70,000 3YO & UP. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Tiger Tees
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.65
Jockey: Christian Reith
Trainer: Joseph Pride
Winner: Dystopia
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Chris Waller


Caulfield: Track Good.

R2 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Rating 72. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Szewinska
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.40
Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Total Attraction
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.40
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R5 $100,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: First Command
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.60
Jockey: Jamie Mott
Trainer: Anthony Freedman
Winner: Chasm
Starting price: $8.50
Top fluctuation: $12.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.30
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Brendan McCarthy


Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 31st. December, 2011.

Rosehill: Track Good.

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Single
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.10
Jockey: Nathan Berry
Trainer: Craig Carmody
Winner: Alma's Fury
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Paul Murray

R2 $70,000 3YO. Rating 74. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Kuhreihen
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Cindarockinrella
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.50
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Tim Martin


Moonee Valley: Track R1 Dead, R2 - R8 Good.

R1 $50,000 2YO. Open. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Persecution
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $2.80
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Repousser
Starting price: $12.00
Top fluctuation: $12.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $15.30
Jockey: Billy Egan
Trainer: Byron Cozamanis

R2 $100,000 3YO. New Year's Eve Classic. Final. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Westsouthwest
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
Winner: Zuma Roc
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Andrew Mallyon
Trainer: Neil Walsh

R4 $50,000 Rating 95. Handicap.
Distance: 955 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: The Soldier
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.10
Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse
Trainer: Byron Cozamanis
Winner: General Truce
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Ashley Thompson
Trainer: Ricky Maund

This edition of Punt to Win:
Free winning horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Beat the Firming Tote Favourites horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/1/2012 & 31/12/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/12/2011 & 17/12/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 17/12/2011
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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