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14/2/2003 edition

Murphy's Blu Boy Blues
Bet for Value

Murphy's Blu Boy - $1.25 flop

Many punters must have thought the $1.30 on offer about Murphy's Blu Boy at Caulfield in the Colts and Geldings Group 3 Blue Diamond Prelude last Saturday was value, because the colt firmed to start at only $1.25.

It takes big money to make a horse firm from $1.30.

In a field of nine lightly raced horses, it is asking for trouble taking $1.25 about any horse, no matter how much of a certainty it looks. Murphy's Blu Boy got the staggers over the last 200 and was easily overhauled by the John Hawkes' trained Hammerbeam who paid $34.20 for the win. John Hawkes has a habit of winning good races with outsiders.

But we must admit, it was a bit hard to come into Hammerbeam. Twelve days earlier Murphy's Blu Boy beat Hammerbeam by nearly 12 lengths. On Saturday Hammerbeam met Murphy's Blu Boy 2.5kg. better at the weights. The race was also 1100 metres, an extra 100 metres. But that does not account for 12 lengths.

The winning time was very poor. It was 1:03.73, compared to 1:03.29 for Halibery's win of the fillies' version of the race.

Is Murphy's Blu Boy a three win wonder? Very unlikely. Probably something was amiss for the colt to run such poor time. But whether the colt can justify the valuation of around $2,000,000 put on him by the numerous bids and 49% purchase before Saturday is quite another matter.

He could yet turn out to be an absolute champion. When we look back at his career this defeat might look like an aberration. Then again, he could turn out to be just be a handy city horse.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Flemington racetrack - farcical Group 1 race
Murphy's Blu Boy blues - bet for value
Trifectas - structure bets right and make more money
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Randwick, Caulfield betting tips from the track
Money talks - Morphettville, Eagle Farm betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 7/2/2003
Punt to Win index


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It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


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