Punt to Win
Control your betting - control your odds
Believe it or not, the odds you get about your selections are nearly as important as the selections themselves.
Good selections that win 33% of the time will lose you money if you only average $2.50 about them, because at $2.50 you need a 40% winning strike rate to break even. But if you average better than $3.00 (33%) about them those same selections will make you money.
Before you bet you must have an idea about what are fair odds for the horses you are prepared to back. If you think the horse you like at best can win the race about one in five times - 20% of the time, you must not be prepared to accept below $5.00. Odds calculator gives you tables so you know what winning strike rate you need for horses at different odds.
For Saturday racing to get the top odds about horses that are well in the market in your home state it is best to go to the track. That way you can often get a price better than the top official betting ring fluctuation.
(The top fluctuation as it is called is the top price most commonly available in the betting ring. For example, five bookies are betting $4.00, nine bookmakers have $4.20, while one bookmaker is offering $4.40 - the top fluctuation will be $4.20).
However there is a major problem if you want to bet on interstate races and go to your local track. You can have real difficulties getting decent odds.
1. It is just about impossible to get the top odds by waiting for new interstate prices to intermittently be posted.
2. The few bookmakers operating on interstate racing regularly have their prices for horses well below what is being bet in the interstate betting ring. They do not compensate for that by offering better odds on some of the other horses. They are only able to get away with that because punters foolishly accept it and still bet with them.
You need to get at least top official betting ring fluctuation on the interstate horses you back. But that alone is not enough.
You must also be in control of your betting which means controlling the odds you get.
You only have to look at some of the horrendous betting ring markets at top official odds - around 140% - particularly at provincial non-Saturday meetings. You can't simply put on a top fluctuation bet with a bookie and find because they are betting 140% that the best odds about your horse is $3.00 when you wanted at least $5.00. Getting those sorts of unders means you must lose long term.
You require at least two things from a top official fluctuation bet:
1. The top official fluctuation must be paid to you. No deductions from your winnings because then it is not a top fluctuation bet.
2. You must have the ability to give minimum odds with your bet. If the minimum odds are not available, your bet is off. Without that, you have no real control over your betting.
How can you get this? It is a very competitive market for the horse racing betting dollar . So the same advice applies as for any other service you want. Shop around.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2005 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
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