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15/11/2002 edition

Betting Tips
Risk versus Reward

Let's have a look at the prices of some of the horses that went around last Saturday and show why they were risky bets at the odds

Deprave $4.20 was always going to be a risky bet rising 3kg. to 58.5kg. Finished second in the field of 12.

Chester County $3.80 two weeks earlier won a 3YO Open over 1000 metres carrying only 54kg. He was well under the odds following a hefty rise of 4kg. to 58kg. for a 3YO Listed race over 1400 metres. The step up from 1000 to 1400 is usually risky. He finished a well beaten fifth.

Excellerator $3.20 needed to be a super horse to justify those odds with top weight of 57kg. in the 16 horse Group 1 Handicap, the Cantala Stakes, run over 1600 metres. He finished third.

Shameka $1.60 is owned by His Excellency Nasser Abdullah Hussain Lootah and trained by Gai Waterhouse, who in public seems to be over-enthused about the winning chances of her horses. If punters want to take odds of $1.60 about an unraced 2YO filly in a field of 12 with nine other unraced fillies then they deserve to do their money. Sure, there was trial form, but long experience has shown that to only be a very rough guide at best to the winning chances of the unraced brigade. The best guide in those races is don't back anything at short odds, even if you own the horse and the trainer tells you it is a certainty. Shameka had every chance, but finished second, beaten over a length by Polar Success.

Transfix $2.35 finished third in a 2YO Open. Four of the field were unraced. What's It Like, one of the unraced brigade, won and paid up to $23.20 on SuperTab. So much for following the money. What's It Like had won a Doomben barrier trial. Now that gives a clue about how you can make use of the barrier trial information for unraced 2YOs. Ignore the "smart money" (we'd prefer at times to call it "wealthy mug money") ignore the majority of punters and back barrier trial winners at around $20.00.

Sundiata $2.60 would have to be a very classy conveyance to justify those odds in a Listed Handicap run over 1600 metres. The 5YO mare was coming off a first up win by a neck in a 1450 Mares Open at Victoria Park. She carried only half a kilo less weight as connections thought it necessary to use a three kilos claiming apprentice first up. In the Listed Handicap she finished eighth of 10 - not what you want when taking $2.60.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting odds - risk versus reward
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Randwick plunge horses
Money talks - Flemington plunge horses
Money talks - Doomben plunge horses
Money talks - Morphettville plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 8/11/2002
Punt to Win index

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It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

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