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16/1/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, January 10.

Rosehill: Track Good
R2 $50,000 3YO Fillies. Sc1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Twinciti
Result: first
Starting price: $1.65
Top fluctation: $1.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Brad Pengelly
Trainer: Gary Portelli

R6 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Handsome Ransom
Result: seventh
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctation: $3.30
Jockey: Jay Ford
Trainer: Anthony Cummings
Winner: Bosworth
Starting price: $14.00
Top fluctation: $15.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $14.80
Jockey: James Innes
Trainer: Les Bridge

Caulfield: Track Good
R2 $50,000 3YO Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Reset
Result: first
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson

R3 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Broadband
Result: first
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R5 $100,000 Group 3. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Super Elegant
Result: first
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Patrick Payne
Trainer: Tony Vasil

Morphettville: Track Good
R1 $22,000 2YO Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Tippitaka
Result: first
Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

This edition of Punt to Win:
Place betting on the tote - is it value?
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Caulfield betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 9/1/2004
Punt to Win index


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It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


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