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16/3/2013 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 9th. March, 2013.

Flemington: Track Dead R1-R3, Good R4-R9.
Newmarket Handicap Day.

R1 $150,000 Group 3. 2YO. Fillies. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Montsegur
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Peter Snowden


Warwick Farm: Track Good.
Chipping Norton Stakes Day.

R1 $85,000 3YO & UP. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Award Season
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Kris Lees

R3 $100,000 Mares. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Steps In Time
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: John O'Shea


Doomben: Track Heavy.

R3 $45,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Volkhere
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Anthony Allen
Trainer: Robert Heathcote
Winner: Epic Terra
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Tegan Harrison
Trainer: Matthew Dunn

R4 $50,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Carmora
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.95
Top fluctuation: $1.95
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Michael Cahill
Trainer: Desleigh Forster

R5 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Secret Garden
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Michael Cahill
Trainer: Paul Nolan (Junior)

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing handicapping made easy
The Free High Winning Strike Rate horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 9/3/2013
Group 1 horse racing results: 2/3/2013
Group 1 horse racing results: 23/2/2013
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 9/3/2013

Betting favourites in small fields: 2/3/2013
Betting favourites in small fields: 23/2/2013
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 23/2/2013
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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