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16/4/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, April 10.

Caulfield: Track Good
R2 $50,000 3YO Colts & Geldings. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: McCarthy's Bar
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctation: $2.70
Jockey: Nicholas Ryan
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
Winner: Rathlin
Starting price: $10.00
Top fluctation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $15.00
Jockey: Luke Currie
Trainer: Pat Hyland

This edition of Punt to Win:
Why Alinghi has cost punters
Get those betting odds!
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick, Caulfield betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 9/4/2004
Punt to Win index


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It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


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  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.