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17/1/2003 edition

Worst Bet of the Year

Last Saturday in the Magic Millions at the Gold Coast the Gai Waterhouse trained 2YO filly Hasna started as $2.25 favourite. At those odds Hasna is one of the worst bets of 2003 - and we've only had two Saturday meetings.

In the big field of 16 runners Hasna had barrier 13.

2. The Gold Coast is a tight turning track, very much a specialists' track. Hasna had never raced there before.

3. The Magic Millions is always run at a hectic speed, with a mad charge from the barriers as jockeys are desperate to get close to the rail.

4. Plenty of runners usually have bad luck in the Magic Millions due to the field size, tight turning track and inexperience.

5. There was absolutely no allowance for bad luck factored into Hasna's price. At $2.25 she was given a 44% chance of winning.

6. Every runner in the field was primed for the race. There was not one runner going around in preparation for another race.

7. Lightly raced two year olds can improve dramatically from one start to the next.

8. It was just generally assumed that Hasna's New South Wales form would be far superior to young horses with good form in other states - a big blunder.

Taking into account the above factors, as a bare minimum a price of at least $5.00 to $6.00 was needed for Hasna.

As the race panned out, Hasna hesitated fractionally at the jump, settled midfield at least four wide throughout, was under pressure rounding the home turn and got cut out of the race at the 200. The finish of seventh, 3.5 lengths from the winner, Regimental Gal, was good in the circumstances.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Hasna - worst bet of the year
Should 8YOs be backed first up?
Quality horses that regain form
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill betting tips from the track
Money talks - Caulfield betting tips from the track
Money talks - Gold Coast Magic Millions betting tips from the track
Money talks - Morphettville betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/1/2003
Punt to Win index

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