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17/1/2015 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about horse racing favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring horse racing favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday horse races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the horse racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most horse races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here is the result for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 20th. December, 2014.

Flemington: Track Good.

R1 $80,000 2YO. Open. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Bosnia
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.65
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: John O'Shea
Winner: Claudia Jean
Starting price: $8.50
Top fluctuation: $11.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.30
Jockey: Jye McNeil
Trainer: David Hayes & Tom Dabernig


Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 13th. December, 2014.

Randwick: Track Soft.

R1 $85,000 3YO. Rating 72. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Minnesota
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.10
Jockey: Taylor Marshall
Trainer: Gwenda Markwell
Winner: Dupe'Em
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.50
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Chris Waller

R3 $100,000 3YO & UP. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Saigon Tea
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Chris Waller

R5 $100,000 3YO & UP. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Our Boy Malachi
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: James McDonald
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes

Flemington: Track Good.

R1 $80,000 Rating 78. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Moscow Pearl
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Harry Coffey
Trainer: Darren Weir
Winner: Audino
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Jordan Childs
Trainer: Robbie Laing

Doomben: Track Soft.

R1 $65,000 Rating 95. Handicap.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Paraggi
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.35
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Liam Birchley
Winner: Flying Home
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.20
Jockey: Jeff Lloyd
Trainer: Barry Baldwin

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing trifecta wagering and staking betting tips
The Free Wide Barrier horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: Kingston Town Classic Day - 6/12/2014
Free horse racing ratings & betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 10/1/2015
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 3/1/2015 & 27/12/2014
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 20/12/2014 & 13/12/2014
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 6/12/2014
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 31/12/2014
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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