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18/6/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from last Saturday, June 12.

Randwick: Track Slow
R1 $45,000 3YO Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Havana Wind
Result: third
Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctuation: $2.60
Jockey: Danney Beasley
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Fictitious Lady
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.10
Jockey: Jay Ford
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R2 $45,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Suede
Result: first
Starting price: $2.15
Top fluctuation: $2.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Rod Quinn
Trainer: John Hawkes

Cheltenham: Track Slow
R1 $24,000 3YO Open. Handicap..
Distance: 1458 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Mt. Billy
Result: first
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.30
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Jeremy Gask

This edition of Punt to Win:
TabCorp and the Mystery Six bet
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick, Flemington betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 11/6/2004
Punt to Win index


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It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

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