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18/6/2004
edition
Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class
We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class,"
to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly
we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above
the minimum."
Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how
handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse
will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.
By the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety
vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly
with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.
The table below shows how horses
that carried 59kg. or more and were supported in the bookmakers' betting
ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - fared last
Saturday. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.)
We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information
over the long term.
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Flemington 12/6/2004
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Horse
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Weight
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Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds
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Finish
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Shango's Image |
59kg. |
3 |
1600 |
$5.50 |
3/14 |
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Eagle Farm 12/6/2004 |
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Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
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Awesome Warrior
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59.5kg.
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8
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1500
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$11.00
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9/10
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Betting
packages
Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites
These are losing
bets.
It
is just about impossible to get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor tote odds you must
lose.
Short
priced tote favourites
are losing bets.
Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights
reserved.
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