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18/6/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, June 11.

Randwick: Track Good

R1 $55,000 3YO. Class 6.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Lord Bubbles
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
Jockey: Kanichiro Fujii
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Retract
Starting price: $10.00
Top fluctuation: $11.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $11.70
Jockey: Rod Quinn
Trainer: John Hawkes

Flemington: Track Slow

R4 $75,000 Hurdle. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 3400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Spanish Symbol
Result: second
Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.80
Jockey: Craig Durden
Trainer: Tom Hughes (Jnr.)
Winner: Anyone We Know
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.20
Jockey: Steven Pateman
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

Morphettville: Track Slow

R2 $24,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Polyesta Sylvesta
Result: first

Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Mick Price

This edition of Punt to Win:
Value betting tips
Get those betting odds
Wet track betting tips
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track: Randwick and Flemington
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 11/6/2005
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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