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18/7/2003 edition

Winners At Big Odds

How to find them

Horses regularly win at big odds. Often if you delve a little into the form the clues to a potentially good run can be found. Here are a few examples from last Saturday's Moonee Valley meeting.

1. Royal Rule $29.60

Two of Royal Rule's recent runs at similar odds weren't too bad - beaten less than three lengths over 1400 metres in 3YO Opens on June 9 and June 28 at Flemington. In both races Royal Rule made up some ground.

The gelding had also comfortably won a 3YO Open over 1400 metres at Sandown Hillside on March 26.

At Moonee Valley Craig Newitt, who had won on Royal Rule before, was given the ride. The track was rated Dead. Royal Rule's best runs were on Dead to Good rated tracks.

There were also only 10 runners in this 3YO Open over 1600 metres. In a smallish field with a very competent previous winning jockey and recent form only a few lengths off winning, at $29.60 Royal Rule was over the odds.

2. McHale $14.30

This 4YO gelding was running in a Country Cup restricted race over 2040 metres. In this field of 11 he was ignored because he'd never raced over the distance. It was a clear example of penalising a horse before it was proven that he could not handle the distance.

You only had to go back two starts to Flemington on June 7 in a similar race over 1600 metres where McHale started at $7.00 in the field of 14 and was beaten by less than a length to know the class was no problem.

Tip: If a horse is beaten by just a few lengths it does not justify that horse going around in similar standard next start at huge odds, particularly if the field is not overly big, as was the case with Royal Rule.

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to find winners at big odds
Adelaide money jockey/Darren Beadman keeps winning
Making money betting horses is easy
Money talks - Randwick, Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Money talks - Eagle Farm betting tips from the track
Money talks - Morphettville betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 11/7/2003
Punt to Win index


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