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19/11/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, November 13.

Rosehill: Track Good
R1 $55,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Equal Favourite: She's In Demand
Result: second
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.90
Jockey: Justin Sheehan
Trainer: Mario Caltabiano
Equal Favourite: Saxon
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.50
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Winner: Regal Gaze
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.00
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Rod Craig

R3 $55,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Golden Weekend
Result: first
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: James Innes
Trainer: Paul Cave

R7 $55,000 3YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Terrace
Result: first
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.85
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes

Sandown Hillside: Track Heavy
R1 $60,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Smooth Groove
Result: fifth
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.90
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Andrew Noblet
Winner: Ankaret
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.70
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: John Hawkes

R3 $100,000 3YO Fillies. Listed. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Creative Plan
Result: first
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R4 $100,000 Listed. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Brannigan
Result: first
Starting price: $1.95
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: John Hawkes

R5 $100,000 Group 3. Handiacap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Equal Favourite: Amtrak
Result: first
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Mick Price
Equal Favourite: Shadowmaker
Result: third
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Gwenda Johnstone

R7 $400,000 Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Count Ricardo
Result: first
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Stephen Theodore

This edition of Punt to Win:
Form analysis and betting strategies - unraced horses
Get those betting odds
Why your odds are nearly as important as the horse you bet
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Rosehill and Sandown
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 12/11/2004
Punt to Win index


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You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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