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12/11/2004 edition

Melbourne Cup Betting Tips

Last Saturday was the final day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival held at Flemington horse racing track. The track was badly rain affected and rated Heavy. Let's see how the favourites fared in race order and what wet track form they had on Heavy tracks.

Leone Chiara
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.80
Punters got away to a good start. Leone Chiara had only raced once on a wet track and finished second, 3.5 lengths from the winner. So punters could possibly count themselves fortunate. as that result is hardly enough "form" to justify favouritism on a very Heavy track.

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
This 2YO colt had only raced twice, both times on Good rated tracks. So why was he a solid favourite on a Heavy track? He was beaten by over three lengths.

Lightning Command
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.00
This 4YO mare had good wet track form. When she last raced on a Heavy track at Sandown Hillside in June she won by over three lengths. But at Flemington she was beaten by over nine lengths. Her jockey Steven King told stewards that she didn't appear to handle the wet track. All Heavy tracks aren't the same. Flemington was very Heavy.

Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.30
This 3YO colt had raced once on a Heavy track for a second at Sandown Hillside, beaten by two lengths. The colt hung in during that race. That could have been an indication that Krasky was not happy in the conditions. Krasky certainly wasn't at Flemington, beaten by nearly eight lengths.

Dance The Waves
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $3.60
Talk about taking a gamble. This 4YO gelding had raced eight times, but not once on a Heavy track. He was beaten by over three lengths, though he was tightened shortly after the start. The winner, Holding, who started at $5.50, had two wins and a third from three starts on Heavy rated tracks.
Continued next page

This edition of Punt to Win:
Melbourne Cup Carnival betting tips - Heavy track favourites
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Victoria Derby, Rosehill and Warwick Farm
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 29/10/2004
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