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12/11/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting. We have the results below from Victoria Derby Day and Saturday, November 6.

Here are the results from Saturday, November 6.

Warwick Farm: Track Dead
R1 $55,000 4YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Fourofakind
Result: third
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
Jockey: Rod Quinn
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Johnny Reb
Starting price: $3.35
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Tim Martin

R4 $55,000 3YO and upward. Sc2. Handicap.
Distance: 2100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Mr Celebrity.
Result: first
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Danny Beasley
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Flemington: Track Heavy
R2 $200,000 2YO. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Quarterman
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Jiang
Starting price: $11.00
Top fluctuation: $11.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $13.20
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R7 $100,000 Welter. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Our Smoking Joe
Result: first
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.35
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Nicholas Ryan
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R8 $250,000 Group 2. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Tomorrow's Party
Result: seventh
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.20
Jockey: Michael Walker
Trainer: Michael Moroney
Winner: Fantastic Love
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.80
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor

Morphettville: Track Dead
R1 $22,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: four
Favourite: Davout
Result: first
Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

R2 $20,000 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Honalee
Result: second
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.20
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
Winner: Aerated
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Darren Holland
Trainer: Bill Bogarts

R4 $26,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Stark Touch
Result: third
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: David Noonan
Winner: Rumah Batik
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.70
Jockey: Garry Hoobin
Trainer: Barry Dunn

Here are the results from Victoria Derby Day, Saturday, October 30.

Morphettville Track: Track Good
R1 $20,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Rs1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Pushing Daisies
Result: second
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.00
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald
Winner: Nadema
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Holly McKechnie
Trainer: Sue Jaensch

R2 $26,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2014 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Tarcoola Mist
Result: first
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Linda Meech
Trainer: David Noonan

This edition of Punt to Win:
Melbourne Cup Carnival betting tips - Heavy track favourites
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Victoria Derby, Rosehill and Warwick Farm
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 29/10/2004
Punt to Win index


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It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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