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19/11/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 12th. November.

Sandown Hillside: Track Dead

R1 $50,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Absolute Dream
Result: third
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.70
Jockey: Matt Pumpa
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: I Command
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Nicholas Ryan
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R2 $50,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Maxerelle
Result: second
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.10
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
Winner: Little Doutes
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.20
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes

Cheltenham: Track Dead

R1 $20,000 3YO Fillies. Rs0mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Meriwether
Result: second
Starting price: $1.55
Top fluctuation: $1.80
Jockey: Scott Leckey
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Chilli Stoush
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Trainer: Dion Koch

R2 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs2ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Starhere
Result: first
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Scott Leckey
Trainer: Richard Jolly

This edition of Punt to Win:
Understanding horse racing betting markets and odds
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Sandown Hillside
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
 Punt to Win 12/11/2005
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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