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20/7/2013 edition

Horse Racing Form Analysis

More tips for identifying poor betting value favourites

With laying horses to lose on betting exchanges gaining increased popularity, punters who are able to consistently identify false favourites and favourites under the odds are making plenty of money.

Here are some comments we made about beaten favourites at Rosehill from a few years ago which are just as relevant today.

1. Labasa (4YO and UP. H & G. 1 win-ly. Handicap. 1400 metres.)
Starting Price $3.50. 12 runners.

Maybe so short because Darren Beadman, chasing the Sydney jockey's premiership had the ride. The 5YO gelding was having its ninth run this campaign so he was hardly on the up. Winning strike rate nothing special - only six wins from 34 starts.

2. Coablo (Mares. Open. Handicap. 1300 metres.)
SP $3.40. 12 runners.

Maybe so short because Corey Brown, chasing the Sydney jockey's premiership had the ride. This 4YO mare is proven to be a non winner and deceiver - only two wins from 20 starts. She won her last start. It might be expecting a bit much for her to put two wins together in a row. For a backmarker back in distance from 1400 metres 10 days earlier to 1300 metres was also no help.

3. Laguna Lake (1 win-ly. Handicap. 1900 metres.)
SP $3.50. 12 runners.

A lightly raced 4YO mare, with one win and four seconds from eight starts. She was fit after two runs in and looked well placed, had a good barrier, (three), and Jim Cassidy to ride. The odds were simply too short, considering the realistic winning chances for a number of other runners. The four seconds could also be a concern and indicate a problem about her actually getting strongly to the line. She finished second again.

4. Thorns (Open. Handicap. 1500 metres.)
SP $4.40. 10 runners.

The 4YO John Hawkes trained gelding was very well placed. It had an excellent record at the track - two wins and a second from five starts, and at the distance - three wins and two seconds from six starts. He was fit after two runs in, had barrier two and Darren Beadman to ride. But it was a wide open race and the $4.40 was unders. We liked Thorns ourselves, but wanted around $7.00. So no bet.

5. Danzabeel (3YO. 1 win-ly. Handicap. 1400 metres.)
SP $2.80. 12 runners.

If ever there was a false favourite, this was it. The Zabeel gelding comfortably won its first race start in a Kembla Grange maiden over 1400 metres. Second up four weeks later, it faced a significant rise in class. Four weeks between consecutive 1400 metres runs is not ideal either. The Jim Cassidy jockey and Gai Waterhouse trainer combination lured punters into taking very short odds.

Approaching the first turn, Danzabeel was crowded, became unbalanced and struck the running rail. Jim Cassidy told the stewards after that Danzabeel got its head up, raced ungenerously and was never comfortable. Danzabeel never got into the race and finished a well beaten tenth.

The stewards found nothing wrong with Danzabeel after the race. Bad luck in running must be factored into the price you are prepared to accept. Maybe Danzabeel is one of those many horses that gives up when inconvenienced in a race. There are also plenty of horses that when inconvenienced, shrug their shoulders and fight on.

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This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis - more tips for identifying false favourites
The Free Bunched Field Big Money Dividends horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/7/2013

Betting favourites in small fields: 6/7/2013 & 29/6/2013
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 29/6/2013
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

2012 Melbourne Cup Day
Bookmaker Win Dividends


Get these dividends? Or these bookmaker dividends! Extra Profit $30 bet
Koonoomoo 22.70 31.00 $249
Kasane 26.00 28.70 $81
Green Moon 20.00 22.50 $75
Mahisara 10.20 12.40 $66
Walk With Attitude 6.50 8.50 $60
Verdant 6.60 7.50 $27
Eclair Surprise 9.50 10.30 $24
Villa Verde 3.00 3.80 $24
Genteel 3.70 4.00 $9
Unpretentious 3.90 4.20 $9


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