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20/8/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, August 13.

Rosehill: Track Good

R1 $60,000 3YO and upward. Class 6.
Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Above Deck
Result: second
Starting price: $1.95
Top fluctuation: $2.10
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Jim Conlan
Winner: Taken At The Flood
Starting price: $14.00
Top fluctuation: $14.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $17.00
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Paul Cave

R6 $140,000 Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Dance Hero
Result: second
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.25
Jockey: Lenny Beasley
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Shania Dane
Starting price: $51.00
Top fluctuation: $61.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $34.40
Jockey: Rod Quinn
Trainer: John Hawkes


Moonee Valley: Track Slow

R4 $100,000 3YO Fillies. Listed. Set weights with penalties
.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Jadescent
Result: first

Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Lee Hope

R5 $100,000 3YO Colts & Geldings. Listed. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Perfectly Ready
Result: fourth
Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $1.90
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Mick Price
Winner: Danerich
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Noel Callow
Trainer: Robbie Laing


Morphettville: Track Slow

R3 $26,000 Open.
Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Pipkin
Result: first

Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Scott Leckey
Trainer: Barry Brook

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing value wagering tips
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Moonee Valley
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 13/8/2005
Punt to Win index


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You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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