Punt to Win
Horse Racing Trifecta Betting Tips
Let's have a look at what a racing media tipster said about an odds on tote favourite in a horse race with only six runners:
"....Odds on at the moment and it's the one which perhaps on value should be stood out for quinellas, exactas and trifectas."
What a useless piece of betting advice! Trying to invent "value" out of a very short priced horse in a very small field of six runners. It's a trap that many punters fall into, no doubt swayed by the regular advice from media tipsters that it's the right way to go.
Those media tipsters surely wouldn't have been following their own advice, otherwise they would know that it's a guranteed way to lose money over the long term.
In such a small field it is generally betting suicide to have a tote odds on favourite as your standout to win. Indeed, in races like that if the horse finishes anywhere in the first three, trifecta dividends are decimated.
By the way. The odds on tote favourite finished fourth. No quinella, no exacta, no trifecta by taking it as a standout.
The trifecta was filled in order by the fourth, third and second horses in the market. It paid $83.40 for. Not particularly generous considering the fourth ranked horse out of six won and the short priced favourite missed a place. Throw in the odds on tote favourite into second or third and the payout is not worth getting. Have the odds on tote favourite win and the dividend would be so paltry you've got to ask yourself, "Why bother?"
Our racing media tipster should have said the following:
"This small six horse race is not very good for taking most trifecta combinations. I recommend you save your money for a more suitable race."
But don't expect that. The aim of many in the racing media is to get you to bet, bet and bet some more.
Trifectas - avoid doing this
Have a look at the trifecta results from another race. It was a field of 10. The $2.30 tote favourite won and two of the next three horses in the tote market finished second and third.
The trifecta paid a paltry $40.50. Why? Because most punters boxed the four most popular horses in the market. That cost them $24.00. There was a profit of $16.50. To break even with that trifecta betting strategy those punters have to obtain a phenomenal trifecta strike rate which is quite unrealistic. At an average collect of $40.50, 60% winning trifectas are needed.
Some races are just poor betting races for trifectas. Smart punters stay out of those races.
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This edition of Punt to Win:
2010 Melbourne Cup Day
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