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20/12/2002 edition

Betting John Hawkes' Trained Horses

"John Hawkes' horses are a menace to punters," said an acquaintance some years ago.

When asked why he replied, "When there's money for them they lose and when there's no money for them they win."

He claimed that was playing havoc with his betting system which made use of horses that firmed in the bookmakers' betting for his quinella bets (first two finishers in a race in any order). I could have added, "Are you sure the problem's not with your racing system?" but tactfully said nothing.

We are regularly reminded by the media to check the betting for Hawkes' trained horses, and also horses from numerous other trainers. We are told how significant the betting is as a lead. In our opinion these betting movements can comfortably be be ignored. If anything, paying attention to the betting movements might deter you from making some good bets.

Most of the Hawkes trained horses are controlled/owned by the Woodlands Stud Syndicate - the wealthy Ingham brothers - and they are quite content to let the horses go around without backing them.

It is also significant that many John Hawkes' trained horses are prepared to win first up. (There are a number of other trainers who also successfully do this.)

Two standout bets from the Stable on Saturday at Sandown, both with serious winning chances, were first up.

In the 1200 metres Open Handicap Philotimo eased to $13.00. But the 5YO gelding had:

1. One win and two seconds from four first up runs.
2. Two wins from six starts at Sandown.
3. Was clearly up to the class - having won an Open Handicap at the track.
4. Darren Gauci had the ride.

If you paid any attention to the gelding's softness in the betting you would have been put off. Ignore that and there was a chance to back a good priced winner.

The following race at Sandown was a 1400 metres Open Handicap. The Hawkes' trained Kepero was resuming from a spell.

This lightly race 4YO Star Way horse was unwanted in the field of eight runners and eased to $11.00 in the betting. But Kepero had:

1. Only raced eight times for two wins, two seconds and a third.
2. Won at his only start at Sandown - a Saturday standard 3YO Open.
3. Finished second and third at his two previous first up runs.
4. The horse was clearly right up to Saturday Open Handicap standard.

Primed to win first up, he didn't have the best of luck in running and in a photo finished a close, unlucky third.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting John Hawkes' trained horses
Brisbane bookmakers - poor betting odds
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill betting tips from the track
Money talks - Sandown betting tips from the track
Money talks - Eagle Farm betting tips from the track
Money talks - Cheltenham betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 13/12/2002
Punt to Win index


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