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21/1/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, January 15.

Warwick Farm: Track Good

R1 $55,000 3YO and upward. Sc1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Men At Work
Result: first
Starting price: $1.30
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John O'Shea

R2 $55,000 4YO and upward. Sc2. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Crews Place
Result: sixth
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.40
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Barbarah Joseph
Winner: Lord Of Lords
Starting price: $14.00
Top fluctuation: $14.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.10
Jockey: James Innes
Trainer: Paul Cave

R3 $55,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: North Of Havana
Result: sixth
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Coming Storm
Starting price: $101.00
Top fluctation: $101.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $40.80
Jockey: Cliff Lai
Trainer: Graeme Spackman

Caulfield: Track Good

R1 $50,000 2YO. Fillies. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Cayambe
Result: third
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.90
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Tony McEvoy
Winner: Amarazetti
Starting price: $9.50
Top fluctuation: $9.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $11.20
Jockey: Nicholas Ryan
Trainer: Ricky Maund

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting system
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Warwick Farm and Caulfield
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
 Punt to Win 14/1/2005
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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