21/6/2002 edition

Horse Racing
Selection Criteria

Here is a posting from the horse racing forum by "hermes" on June 17. We found the posting interesting and give some of our views about important selection criteria, as well as including an excellent reply to "hermes" posted on the forum.

"I'm fairly new to punting and I'm still learning the basics. I've collected lots of opinions and info on selection criteria and methods. I'm trying to make sense of it and get it clear in my mind. I'd greatly appreciate any further ideas or advice from punters on-line here.

I'm a hobby punter, not a professional, so there are limits to the amount of time I can devote to studying a race. I want to limit it to what I can easily extract from the Sportsman guides. It seems to me I need to look at:

1. Physical factors - barrier, weight, number of runners, length of race, state of track. etc. The immutable parameters of the race. "

Our reply:
Be very wary of horses rising substantially in weight and also getting a poor barrier. Many are sent out incorrectly as short priced favourites because they "have the class".

The more runners in a race, even if they are terrible runners, the longer odds you need for the best horses. The more runners in a race the more likely some of the best horses in the race will have bad luck.

Probably the best distances to bet on are 1200 to 1600 metres, Flemington straight excluded.

"2. Non-horse factors - trainer and jockey. (Horses are not greyhounds after all.)"

Our reply:
Very important. We have our own trainer and jockey ratings. Keep notes of anything a trainer does out of the ordinary. For example, dropping a horse back from 1600 metres to 1200 metres and winning.

"3. Career form - place average, prize average, performance over the distance and at track. Class. What calibre horse?"

Our reply:
Win and place strike rates indicate at least two important things:
a) How consistent the horse is.
b) How well placed the horse has been.

We tend to ignore average prize money, though a lot of punters make use of it. It gets distorted by prize money increases over time and abnormal prize money for rich restricted races.

It's important to look behind the figures. For example a horse with three unplaced runs at a track from three starts might have actually performed better in ratings terms than a horse with two close wins and a second from three starts at the same track.

When they meet at the track the horse with the wins will usually be sent out at much shorter odds. That's how false favourites can also be created.
Continued next page

This edition of Punt to Win:
Sandown track bias - punters destroyed
Bet for value
Trainer tips and Sky Racing leg-ups
Horse racing selection criteria - helpful tips
Money talks - Rosehill and Sandown plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 14/6/2002
Punt to Win index

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