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23/2/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 16th. February.

Randwick: Track Dead

R1 $75,000 2YO Colts & Geldings. Listed. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Sebring
Result: first

Starting price: $1.35
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R2 $60,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Rst91. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Swissac
Result: second
Starting price: $2.00
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Bart Cummings
Winner: Matchless
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.20
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Jack Denham

Moonee Valley: Track Good

R3 $75,000 4YO and upward. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Pinnacles
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.10
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Rick Hore-Lacy
Winner: Lazer Sharp
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $11.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.10
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Are tote odds better than bookmaker odds?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Beaten Favourite horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 16/2/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 9/2/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 16/2/2008 & 9/2/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 9/2/2008
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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