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23/7/2005 edition

Horses are not Machines

The spacing of a horse's races and how often it is asked to race are very important form factors. It pays to be wary of a horse that has its days off between races altered - for example it usually races with two or three week breaks. Now after a good second the trainer is backing it up the following week. It pays to be even more wary if the horse has already failed with just a one week between races.

Similarly if a horse is being asked to back up week after week after week you are looking at a betting risk. We wrote the following some time ago - but it equally applies today.

"Vladivostock's outstanding win at Doomben on August 4 after encountering major difficulties in the run was well documented in the racing media. That was Vladivostock's third win in a row.

Vladivostock had raced and won on July 18, July 21 and August 4. The four year old grey gelding was being asked to back up again on August 11, his fourth race in 25 days, with top weight of 56kg. He settled midfield and ran on for second, but the zip had gone - he never looked like winning.

Romantic Sea, a very promising four year old mare, won a tough race at Caulfield on August 4. That was her eighth run this campaign. She had recently raced on June 22, June 30, July 14, July 21 and August 4, winning four of those five races.

Yet Romantic Sea was asked to back up again on August 11, her sixth run in 51 days, with a two kilos weight increase to 56.5kg. She led, but was pressured throughout. She tried to rally in the straight after being headed on the home turn but couldn't and finished a creditable fourth, beaten under two lengths.

In both cases, you must really question whether connections have gone to the well just once too often."

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horses are not machines
Get those betting odds
Wide barrier horse racing betting system
Horse Watch - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for popular winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Moonee Valley
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 16/7/2005
Punt to Win index


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