Punt to Win
Betting on "In Form" Jockeys
Some time ago we heard comments along the following lines about an "in form" jockey.
That had a perfect run, didn't it. Third on the fence. It's amazing when jockeys are in form, as John Powell is, how things just pan out in a race. Here he gets on Lady Isabella. Next thing Poacher's Luck and Cyrillic are just making a mess of each other in front.
John Powell lobs Lady Isabella third the fence, the box seat. Nothing falls back on its lap. He gets around the heels of the leaders at the right time. He's able to hold up, then go when he wants to go. That's when jockeys are in form. When they're in form everything goes to plan."
Now let's show you why this win had nothing to do with John Powell being "in form". But before we start, let's add that it's just superstitious nonsense to believe that when a jockey is in form "everything goes to plan."
3. The truth of the matter is that most jockeys are in form most of the time. But only one "in form" jockey can win any given race, which obviously means that most in form jockeys do not win most of the time. And for most "in form" jockeys, as winning is part of the plan, then things will not go to plan in most races.
4. Because most jockeys are very competent, the racing media hyped jockeys tend to be overrated by the betting public. That results in shorter odds on the horses they ride compared with a lower profile jockey having the same ride.
5. That means you need to be very careful when backing horses ridden by someone like Damien Oliver. Because just about all punters have decided that he is "in form" the odds you get are shortened. You also know your odds will also be shortened by gamblers who rely purely on luck and will back a horse for no other reason than "Oliver has the ride."
6. You also need to be very wary about betting horses ridden by a jockey who has had a big winning run over the last couple of meetings. Rest assured you will most likely be getting under the odds with just about every one of the horses this "hot jockey" rides.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
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