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24/2/2007 edition

Betting on "In Form" Jockeys

Some time ago we heard comments along the following lines about an "in form" jockey.

That had a perfect run, didn't it. Third on the fence. It's amazing when jockeys are in form, as John Powell is, how things just pan out in a race. Here he gets on Lady Isabella. Next thing Poacher's Luck and Cyrillic are just making a mess of each other in front.

John Powell lobs Lady Isabella third the fence, the box seat. Nothing falls back on its lap. He gets around the heels of the leaders at the right time. He's able to hold up, then go when he wants to go. That's when jockeys are in form. When they're in form everything goes to plan."

Now let's show you why this win had nothing to do with John Powell being "in form". But before we start, let's add that it's just superstitious nonsense to believe that when a jockey is in form "everything goes to plan."

1.
If John Powell was not "in form" would Poacher's Luck and Cyrillic have been ridden any differently? Of course not. All John Powell had to do was ride his mount like the competent jockey he is.

2.
You could hardly say that Scott Galloway, the jockey of Cyrillic was not "in form." Things obviously didn't "go to plan" for him, with a speed battle up front.

3. The truth of the matter is that most jockeys are in form most of the time. But only one "in form" jockey can win any given race, which obviously means that most in form jockeys do not win most of the time. And for most "in form" jockeys, as winning is part of the plan, then things will not go to plan in most races.

4. Because most jockeys are very competent, the racing media hyped jockeys tend to be overrated by the betting public. That results in shorter odds on the horses they ride compared with a lower profile jockey having the same ride.

5. That means you need to be very careful when backing horses ridden by someone like Damien Oliver. Because just about all punters have decided that he is "in form" the odds you get are shortened. You also know your odds will also be shortened by gamblers who rely purely on luck and will back a horse for no other reason than "Oliver has the ride."

6. You also need to be very wary about betting horses ridden by a jockey who has had a big winning run over the last couple of meetings. Rest assured you will most likely be getting under the odds with just about every one of the horses this "hot jockey" rides.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting on "in form" jockeys
Get those betting odds
The Upset Winner horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill & Moonee Valley
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/2/2007
Punt to Win index


2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Typhoon Zed 21.50 28.90 $74
Delta Blues 17.50 20.20 $27
Lyrical Bid 16.50 19.00 $25
Brom Felinity 13.30 15.70 $24
Dance Hero 12.60 14.90 $23
Southern Courage 16.20 18.30 $21


 

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