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24/2/2007 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

By the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - fared last Saturday. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Rosehill - 17/2/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Media
59.5kg.
2
1200
$6.50
5/9
Eagle Farm - 17/2/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mitanni
60kg.
8
1200
$3.10fav.
2/10
Caulfield - 10/2/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Haradasun
59kg.
4
1400
$1.35fav.
1/7
Apache Cat
61kg.
10
1100
$5.50
1/11
King Of Ashford
60kg.
2
1400
$8.00
1/12
Morphettville - 10/2/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Absolute Heaven
59.5kg.
6
1200
$8.00
3/10
Rosehill - 3/2/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Spirit Of Tara
59.5kg.
3
1900
$5.50
2/8
Doomben - 3/2/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Carry On Kosa
59kg.
2
1110
$3.20fav.
4/11
Morphettville - 3/2/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Quick Reaction
60kg.
6
1100
$8.00
7/13
Sandown Hillside - 27/1/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Polar Bear
59kg.
1
1400
$6.00
5/9
Morphettville - 27/1/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Bretcarlyle
59.5kg.
7
1600
$1.70fav.
2/11
Randwick - 20/1/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
With A Chance
59kg.
4
1600
$4.20
2/7
Century Serb
59kg.
6
1200
$2.90
5/9
Caulfield - 13/1/2007
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Rubijon
59kg.
9
2000
$6.50
6/11
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting on "in form" jockeys
Get those betting odds
The Upset Winner horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill & Moonee Valley
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/2/2007
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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