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17/2/2007 edition

Betting Tip from Moonee Valley Horse Racing Track

Here are some interesting pieces of information that was given to punters to help them back a winning horse.

On hearing from the "man at the track" that there'd been support for a horse at long odds, the studio racing host became very enthusiastic:

"And check out this horse. If you'd like to know more about it it's by Kinjite, a New Zealand galloper." While that's an interesting bit of information, how is that going to help anyone decide whether to back it?

We were then told that this horse had placed in New Zealand at tracks like Pukekohe Park and Trentham. How is that relevant to a specialists' track like Moonee Valley? We weren't told that.

What were the distances of these races? Don't bother telling punters that! The races were actually from 1400 metres to 1600 metres. But as the horse was racing over 2040 metres, placing over 1400 metres to 1600 metres doesn't indicate that the horse will run out 2040 metres.

We were then told that the horse had recently placed at Sandown. Again, how is that going to help anyone decide whether to back it over 2040 metres at Moonee Valley? They are completely different horse racing tracks.

Then another "great" piece of information was given to punters. The horse's last start, was in a country cup, where it struck its head at the barrier, but still finished fifth.

Our studio host told us that run had plenty of merit and Peter Mertens again had the ride. But our studio host did not add that the horse was a well beaten fifth, by over five lengths. Nor did he mention that it was on Slow ground, making the run pretty much irrelevant considering the Moonee Valley race was on a Good track!

Our studio racing host then pointed out that the horse would firm on the tote following "that wrap from the on course news." Yet this horse had actually only been specked on track from $26.00 to $16.00. At those odds that doesn't take much money.

The horse was ridden perfectly by Peter Mertens, but only plodded in the straight and finished a well held fifth.

But there was one very significant piece of information that our studio racing host did not tell us.

I would have thought the first thing he could have told us was that the 5YO gelding had won just twice from 38 starts. But then who would have wanted to hear anything else about it as a betting proposition if the first thing they'd been told was, "I've got a great tip from the track for you. It's only won twice from 38 starts, but don't worry about that."

This edition of Punt to Win:
Understanding horse racing betting tips
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick & Caulfield
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/2/2007
Punt to Win index

2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Typhoon Zed 21.50 28.90 $74
Delta Blues 17.50 20.20 $27
Lyrical Bid 16.50 19.00 $25
Brom Felinity 13.30 15.70 $24
Dance Hero 12.60 14.90 $23
Southern Courage 16.20 18.30 $21


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